Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) recent negative press has been mostly misleading and unfair, but it may weigh on near-term fundraising trends and valuation, Oppenheimer said in a note Wednesday.
The firm said the barrage of negative coverage resembles the exaggerated fears surrounding commercial banks in the second half of 2023. Oppenheimer said it does not believe in a narrative of broad-based deterioration in private credit.
The brokerage said it is "strange" that the press and investors are assuming the company's credit experience will be uniquely bad when its history is among the best, highlighting the business development company's net asset value rising to $14.89 from $14.30 with a dividend payout of $12.87 a share since 2016.
Oppenheimer said in response to the negative sentiment that it is zeroing out growth assumptions for the credit business in H1 and lowering its relative valuation target versus the S&P to 120% from 150%.
The firm said the pressure is likely temporary in what it views as an otherwise strong growth story, though it is trimming its 2027 earnings estimate by about 5%.
Oppenheimer lowered its price target on Blue Owl to $17 from $24, with an outperform rating.
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