3月4日,自本周中东冲突爆发以来,日元持续走弱,背离其传统避险资产角色,东京交易员正为政府可能入市干预做准备。日元自上周五以来已贬值约1%,至1美元兑157.2日元。交易员表示,这与以往地缘政治紧张时期的情况形成鲜明对比。
Astris Advisory日本策略师Neil Newman表示:“日元已经不再是避险资产。企业大约四年前就不再这样做了。它们现在面临的压力恰恰相反,被鼓励进行海外投资,而且仍在大规模这样做。在日本当前的经济环境下,没有动力把资金汇回国内。”分析人士称,日元的意外疲软凸显了日本经济中的结构性变化与脆弱性。市场一直在评估高市早苗扩大财政支出计划以及她反对日本央行进一步加息立场的影响。摩根资管亚太区首席市场策略师Tai Hui表示,汇率波动加剧已显著降低日元作为对冲货币的吸引力。地缘冲突还加大了日本对能源价格上涨和通胀上行风险的敞口。
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