高盛:预计韩国半导体出口激增,有助抵消油价上升对经常账拖累

格隆汇
Mar 04

3月4日,高盛发表报告,预期中东局势令油价上升,会导致亚洲新兴市场中几乎所有经济体的经常帐结余将会恶化。不过,半导体出口激增将足以抵消油价上升对韩国经常帐的拖累。该行将韩国2026年经常帐盈余预测由1640亿美元上调至2550亿美元(相当于GDP约9.3%),相当于去年水平的约两倍。基于芯片价格效应,该行现料半导体出口将激增120%,而由于供应紧张局面或持续至2027年才能纾缓,出口量增长将维持于中十位数水平。

高盛估计在12个月韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)目标6400点下,财富效应可为实质本地生产总值增长带来约0.2个百分点的上行空间,并预期韩国央行全年将维持利率不变,因产出缺口持续为负。高盛不排除政府在下半年会利用超额企业税收推出有限度且针对性的财政刺激措施。

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