【券商聚焦】中信建投:霍尔木兹海峡运输受限成为原油运输市场运价调整的重要催化剂

金吾财讯
Mar 02

金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指,短期内波斯湾货量减少的影响,将被全球原油供应链重塑引发的“吨海里效应”和“有效运力下降”逐步抵消,霍尔木兹海峡运输受限成为原油运输市场运价(特别是VLCC船型)调整的重要催化剂。需求端,中东原油出口受阻后,亚洲中、日、韩等买家的刚性炼厂需求将转向大西洋盆地的美湾、西非、巴西等区域,美湾-亚洲航线运输距离较中东-亚洲航线显著增加,单船航行周期拉长,更多占用全球可用运力;供给端,波斯湾内油轮暂时难以调度,峡外船只航行节奏放缓,船队周转率下降,且相关区域航运风险推升战争险保费,间接影响全球现货市场运价基准。市场演进分三阶段推进:第一阶段(事件爆发后1-2周)运价无序波动,波斯湾内运输活动减少,美湾、西非等区域运价受预期影响波动;第二阶段(运输受限持续1-3个月)长航线替代短航线,全球VLCC运力供需趋于紧张,运价逐步上行;第三阶段(运输限制解除后),产油国清库存与消费国补充储备的需求集中释放,叠加供应链未恢复,运输需求集中增长,推动运价进一步调整。需重点跟踪国际布伦特原油价格以防范风险。若运输限制导致油价长期高位,可能引发全球经济波动,进而影响终端石油消费总量,若石油消费出现趋势性变化,将对油轮运输市场长期运行产生影响。

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