The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0333 GMT - Malaysia's benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index may face limited downside despite escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, as local equities have historically proved more resilient than regional peers during geopolitical shocks, Kenanga IB analyst Peter Kong says. Based on past data, the KLCI could fall about 6% to around 1610 as a potential floor, though that level appears unlikely, he adds. Investors may rotate into value sectors such as utilities, banks and telecommunications, while oil and gas stocks could gain on firmer crude, he adds. Kenanga prefers AMMB, Tenaga Nasional and TIME dotCom. The KLCI is 1.0% lower at 1698.68. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0257 GMT - A temporary surge in oil prices following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could shave 0.1 ppt-0.3 ppt off real GDP growth in several major economies, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, say in a note. Inflation could also rise by 1.0 ppt-2.5 ppt. Growth in the Gulf region is likely to be hardest hit due to its proximity to the conflict. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affect both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon trade, which would likely offset any oil output increases by OPEC producers. The supply shock may trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, prompting some central banks to halt easing cycles early and raise rates. Importers of energy from the strait such as Japan and China could also face shortages, BMI adds.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

0250 GMT - The Middle East conflict is likely to lead to only a brief disruption to global energy supply, UBS's Mark Haefele says in a research report. "We expect any initial rise in the price of oil to reverse, at least partially, once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are temporary, critical oil infrastructure is not destroyed, and the need for continued military action fades," the Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer says. "In this scenario, markets may be volatile over the coming weeks but would likely thereafter start to refocus on positive global economic fundamentals," Haefele says. This would be in line with impacts of most geopolitical shocks in recent history, Haefele adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0246 GMT - Palm oil prices rise in early Asian trading, tracking firmer stronger soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade and gains in palm olein on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, PhillipCapital says. Investors are awaiting February's full-month export data, due later in the day, for clearer direction, AmInvestment Bank says. PhillipCapital sees resistance at 4,200 ringgit a ton and support at 4,000 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rises 36 ringgit to 4,078 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0245 GMT - Investors shouldn't panic and instead retain a long-term perspective despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, says OCBC's Afdhal Rahman in a note. While the knee-jerk market reaction is likely to be "understandably risk off," he notes geopolitical developments seldom have a lasting effect on markets unless there is significant economic fallout. A key factor would be the speed at which the conflict is resolved, he says, adding that the Trump administration has an incentive to keep the conflict brief ahead of an upcoming midterm election. Oil prices are also likely to be contained given supply from OPEC+, he adds.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0239 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid the Middle East conflict. The greenback strengthens as "markets digested the impact of the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran and killing of Iran's top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend," says MUFG Bank's Michael Wan. "For Asia FX, a prolonged and escalating conflict with sustained oil price spikes will weigh on Asian currencies given that most in our region are net oil importers," the senior currency analyst adds. USD/SGD is 0.2% higher at 1.2667, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0237 GMT - Oil prices could top $100 a barrel if the Middle East conflict is prolonged, Maybank analysts say in a note, warning that such a surge would severely hurt the global economy. While OPEC+ plans to raise lift April output by 206,000 barrels a day, the impact hinges on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains safe for shipping. Sustained elevated geopolitical tensions may also be supportive for the U.S. dollar, while emerging market currencies may face pressure, they add. Net oil importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia look particularly vulnerable, they say. Front-month crude oil WTI futures add 4.1% to $69.77/bbl; Brent rises 4.5% to $76.13/bbl. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0210 GMT - The oil price spike should prove temporary if the U.S. prevails over Iran and establishes a security blanket for vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, CGS International analyst Raymond Yap says in a note. The Middle East conflict has led some tankers to avoid the waterway, disrupting flows. OPEC+ has announced a 0.206 million-barrel-a-day output increase from April, which could help cushion supply risks. CGS maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector. Direct beneficiaries of higher oil prices include Hibiscus Petroleum, a pure upstream player, and Dialog Group, with about 35% of profit derived from upstream. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0150 GMT - Impact from Iran crisis for equities is "clearly negative," Goldman Sachs's research team says. Oil importers are more exposed, such as markets like India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the team says in a research report. Cyclical sectors are likely to see pressure, especially consumer-facing areas, including airlines, and industrial oil users. Meanwhile, energy producers should outperform. Also, "some of these cyclical sectors and markets have had a strong start to the year and might be more vulnerable to position adjustments," the team says. However, "only a severe and sustained oil price disruption would have large effects on the global growth picture," the team adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0149 GMT - Brent oil prices could jump $15-$20 a barrel from the latest close, potentially approaching $90/bbl, Public Investment Bank analyst Khairul Fahmi says in a note. Escalating U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium, while tanker congestion near the Strait of Hormuz raises near-term supply risks, he says. In a severe scenario of sustained disruption, prices could briefly hit $100/bbl-$110/bbl, though the rise is seen as event-driven, he reckons. OPEC+ supply increases and spare capacity should stabilize prices if tensions ease, with Brent retracing toward $70/bbl-$75/bbl over the medium term. Public IB maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector, expects selective upstream producers like Hibiscus Petroleum and Dialog Group to stand to benefit most from higher oil prices. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0119 GMT - The escalating Middle East conflict could raise oil prices significantly, ING's Warren Patterson says in a research report. "While it is still very early days and the situation is developing at a fast pace, it does not appear that this military action will be quick and short-lived," the head of Commodities Strategy says. "ICE Brent could trade into the region of $80-$90/bbl immediately, with risks for further strength towards $100/bbl and ultimately $140/bbl (worst-case scenario), if we are to see significant and extended oil supply disruptions," Patterson adds. Front-month Brent crude oil futures are 6.5% higher at $77.63/bbl; front-month WTI crude oil futures are 6.2% higher at $71.19/bbl. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0104 GMT - Disruptions to LNG flows via the Strait of Hormuz would reignite competition between Asia and Europe for available cargoes, says Wood Mackenzie's Massimo Di Odoardo. The market is already facing European storage levels below seasonal norms following a severe cold spell in January, says Di Odoardo. He estimates that roughly 20% of global LNG supply was transported through the Strait of Hormuz last year, primarily from Qatar. A halt in flows there would be comparable in scale to the curtailment of Russian gas supplies to Europe, which sent prices soaring, Di Odoardo says. How prices react could be less extreme this time, however, as a blockage of the strait might be viewed as temporary versus the prolonged disruption to Russian supplies, he adds. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 01, 2026 22:33 ET (03:33 GMT)

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