ChainCatcher 消息，加密分析师 Murphy 表示，“以 10y_RP 作为比特币历史平均换手成本来判断市场情绪更为有效。当价格逼近 10y_RP（约 64,500 美元）时，往往接近市场心理承受极限。BTC 多次跌破该水平后又重新站上，显示多头在这一敏感价位的抵抗意愿强烈，不同于此前接近 STH-RP 时的快速下跌。
市场当前最大不确定性仍来自美伊地缘冲突。随着关键事件落地，后续需关注冲突范围、持续时间及其对原油价格的影响。不过，至少在周末缺乏大量机构和做市商参与的情况下，空头力量尚不足以推动 BTC 快速跌破 6 万美元关口。上述判断仍需待下周美股开盘后进一步验证。若走势确认，则此前关于“本次反弹之路能走多远”的分析逻辑及关键阻力位仍将成立。
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