比推消息， 数字资产管理公司 Bitwise Asset Management 通过分析覆盖 2010 年 7 月 17 日至 2026 年 2 月 11 日的价格数据显示，若投资者持有比特币至少三年，历史上出现亏损的概率仅为 0.70%。持有期限越长，亏损风险越低，若投资者持有比特币 5 年亏损概率降至 0.2%，持有 10 年亏损概率为 0%。相比之下持有周期少于三年的投资者面临更高风险，其中：日内买入者出现浮亏的概率达 47.1%，持有一周为 44.7%，持有一个月为 43.2%，即便持有一年亏损概率仍有 24.3%。Bitwise 指出，当前比特币价格约 65,000 美元，较 2025 年 10 月高点回落约 50%。但三至五年持有群体的实现价格约为 34,780 美元，意味着该区间投资者整体仍处于约 90%的浮盈状态。
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