【券商聚焦】中信证券:中东地缘冲突与印尼供给扰动叠加推涨煤价 板块有望进一步上涨

金吾财讯
Mar 02

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,根据新华社报道,“美国和以色列2026年2月28日宣布从空中和海上对伊朗发起打击。分析人士认为,美以军事打击伊朗将扰乱能源供应预期,推动市场避险情绪升温,地区局势围绕霍尔木兹海峡演进的三种潜在情形将决定其对市场的影响程度”。该机构认为若美伊冲突升级带动油价上涨,煤价或也有望跟随上涨。一方面从历史比价看,油煤价格趋势长周期都是同向变动,近两年油煤价格比值在2~3的稳定区间,短期油煤价格存在联动基础;另一方面,印尼煤炭产量2026年以来持续收缩预期,两因素叠加,煤价继续上涨动力充分。由于印尼官方年初以来缩减煤炭产量配额的政策预期持续存在,印尼多数矿山都缩减了现货煤炭出口,导致中国进口煤供应紧张。印尼的减量也带动了澳煤进口价格的上涨。目前国内电厂远期(4月)到港的进口煤招标价格已普遍倒挂,对淡季煤价形成支撑。再叠加油价上涨的预期,预计今年Q2淡季,煤价或淡季不淡,表现超预期。该机构预计短期1个月内,北港5500大卡动力煤价或涨至800元/吨以上,Q2均价或在750元/吨以上。该机构指,2月以来,煤炭市场在印尼煤供给持续紧张的带动下情绪有所升温,价格加速上涨。而中东地缘冲突有望继续抬高全球能源商品价格预期,在海外因素及国内开工和补库需求释放的带动下,该机构预计国内煤价有望进一步上涨,板块也有望延续上涨趋势。

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