来源：中新经纬

　　3月2日，国际油价、金价开盘大幅上涨，布油涨13%，报81.57美元/桶，美油涨11%，报75美元/桶；COMEX黄金涨近3%，逼近5400美元/盎司关口，现货黄金涨超1%。

　　截至发稿，现货黄金涨1.67%，盘中最高触及5393美元/盎司，布油涨8.66%，美油涨8.18%。

　　对外经济贸易大学中国国际碳中和经济研究院执行院长董秀成此前对中新经纬表示，短期冲击来看，伊朗是OPEC第三大产油国，日均出口约150万桶，港口/设施遭袭会直接减少全球供应。霍尔木兹海峡承担全球20%原油海运，航运风险、保费、抢货行为同步推高油价。市场从“供需驱动”转为“纯地缘驱动”，易涨难跌。因此，预计国际油价快速跳涨：布伦特/WTI市场开盘后，大概率会高开5%–10%，地缘政治溢价在原有10美元/桶的基础上再度攀升。

　　展望后市，北京师范大学教授万喆认为本轮金价上涨的持续性仍将主要取决于地缘风险的演变。短期来看，金价可能呈现高位震荡加剧的态势，冲高后回调的风险亦显著上升；中期变量则集中于美联储降息预期的兑现节奏；长期而言，金价波动将趋于常态化，但整体高位周期尚未终结。

　　编辑：李晓萱 责编：罗琨

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