Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0411 ET - Middle East tensions are adding fresh uncertainty to the U.S.-China trade outlook, Moody's Analytics analysts say. China is a major buyer of discounted Iranian crude, but holds sizeable reserves that could cushion short-term supply disruptions. Chinese officials have called for an immediate halt to military operations, with the Foreign Ministry noting, "The Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters are important international trade routes for goods and energy." Still, renewed friction with the U.S. clouds the upcoming U.S.-China summit in April and injects fresh uncertainty to their already fragile trade truce, Moody's says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0407 ET - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could overshadow the U.K.'s spring statement on Tuesday, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The spring statement is a twice-yearly report on the U.K.'s public finances which the treasury chief presents before lawmakers. Gilt yields rise, undoing some of last week's sharp falls, as conflict in the Middle East causes oil prices to jump. This raises a risk of higher global inflation which could limit central banks' scope for cutting interest rates. Ten-year gilt yields rise 3.3 basis points to last trade at 4.266%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0319 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise due to concerns about inflation after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran. "The slight uptick in yields suggests a stronger focus on the inflationary implications of rising oil prices rather than a broad flight to safe-haven assets," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields climb 2.7 basis points to last trade at 4.261%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0303 ET - Jefferies sees scope for equity markets to drop further in the coming days, global economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Jefferies lowered its risk profile early last week on the assumption that the market was too complacent around geopolitical risks, and it is now not making any changes to its portfolio. "We are still happy to remain in the low-risk mode and keeping our powder dry," Kumar says. Jefferies will be looking to buy the dip at some point, "but that some point seems far for now," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0300 ET - Nordic markets are seen opening lower, with IG calling the OMXS30 down 1.4% at around 3178. Stock markets in Asia are falling while futures indicate that Europe and the U.S. will also open in negative territory after the U.S. and Israel launched a major air strike against Iran on Saturday night, Jyske Bank's Morten Nielsen writes. "Continued developments will be closely monitored with regard to the implications for both the stock and energy markets." The energy markets react strongly, with Brent crude oil prices rising above $80 from $72 on Friday, after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed down. OPEC+ decided to increase oil production over the weekend as a result of the unrest. OMXS30 closed at 3222.75, OMXN40 at 2617.28 and OBX at 1819.54. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0250 ET - The Swiss franc rises to its highest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank abandoned its peg for the exchange rate in 2015 as the Middle East conflict bolsters safe-haven assets. President Trump and Israel have launched attacks on Iran and Iran has responded with strikes across the Middle East. The franc is the ultimate safe-haven currency, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. This partly reflects the erosion of other traditional safe-havens currencies, including the U.S. dollar due to erratic U.S. policies and the Japanese yen due to fiscal concerns, she says. The Swiss National Bank also has limited scope to weaken the franc, she says. The euro falls to a low of 0.9032 francs, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0239 ET - The dollar rises to a five-week high against a basket of currencies as conflict in the Middle East boosts demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the weekend, killing a large number of Iran's top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. While conflict might have caught many off guard, the immediate fallout could be relatively contained given this risk premium was already partly embedded in markets and the attack occurred when markets were closed, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. "That said, risk off trading is likely to dominate for now." The DXY dollar index rises to a high of 98.387. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0225 ET - A prolonged war in the Middle East could raise eurozone inflation by 1 percentage point and drag economic growth by a few tenths of a percentage point, Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. However, if the war lasted only a few weeks, the eurozone economy wouldn't be significantly affected, he says. So far the price of Brent crude oil has reacted only moderately to the war and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are drawing hope that Iranian representative may want to negotiate, with the oil price peaking at just over $80 in Asian trading, Kraemer says. A longer war could threaten oil prices toward $100 per barrel, about 40% higher than in mid-February, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0143 ET - The key question for the global economy is obvious: Will the Strait of Hormuz be effectively closed for oil and gas exports for more than a few weeks?, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. "If so, it would hurt global growth and raise global inflation noticeably," the chief economist says. A sustained rise in the oil price by $15 a barrel could raise the level of eurozone consumer prices by almost 0.5% and curtail the gain in disposable incomes accordingly, he says. Schmieding, however, expects President Trump "to go to great lengths" to prevent a lasting surge in energy prices that could hurt him at home ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0124 ET - U.S. Treasury yields mostly rise in Asian trade, with risk aversion contained amid the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, economic data will also be watched, including U.S. employment data on Friday. "While geopolitical events will, of course, prove this week's main focus, the economic calendar is nonetheless a busy one," Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield is up 1 bp at 3.388%, the 10-year yield is up 0.2 bp at 3.963% and the 30-year yield rises 1.9 bps to 4.650%, according to LSEG. The 10-year yield touched an 11-month low of 3.926% earlier in the day. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

2050 ET - Impact from Iran crisis for equities is "clearly negative," Goldman Sachs's research team says. Oil importers are more exposed, such as markets like India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the team says in a research report. Cyclical sectors are likely to see pressure, especially consumer-facing areas, including airlines, and industrial oil users. Meanwhile, energy producers should outperform. Also, "some of these cyclical sectors and markets have had a strong start to the year and might be more vulnerable to position adjustments," the team says. However, "only a severe and sustained oil price disruption would have large effects on the global growth picture," the team adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2026 04:11 ET (09:11 GMT)

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