航运股普涨 中远海发(02866)涨5.83% 战争风险溢价推高油运、集运运价

金吾财讯
Mar 03

金吾财讯 | 航运股普涨,截至发稿,中远海发(02866)涨5.83%,中远海能(01138)涨6.15%,德翔海运(02510)涨3.54%,中远海控(01919)涨1.42%,东方海外国际(00316)涨1.30%。消息面上,华泰证券表示,当地时间2月28日,美国联合以色列对伊朗发动大规模联合空袭。截至3月1日,双方交火持续升级,霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡及红海航线安全风险急剧攀升,航线运力被迫重新部署和调配,航运保险费用大幅上涨。市场对全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧持续加剧,战争风险溢价持续释放,油运、集运、散货各板块运价或将迎来大幅跳涨。该机构指,整体,中东局势升级在短期将大幅抬升全球航运价格,各子板块均受益。该机构认为,若冲突持续时间较长,对全球供应链扰动越大,运价涨幅或将持续。基本面看,年初至今,油运市场持续走强主因委内瑞拉/伊朗/俄罗斯地缘事件(1.1-2.28日,VLCC中东至中国航线运价均值同比上涨183%)。美国及欧盟持续加大对油轮制裁,导致合规市场运力极度紧缺,大幅推升运价。截至2月底,全球约16%油轮船舶为制裁船,较2024年同期的6%大幅增加。因此,该机构认为合规运力不足是推动油轮运价持续走高的内因。集运/干散短期受风险溢价影响较大,运价有望大幅走高;中长期运价走势需关注扰动持续时间。

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