By Dov Lieber

JERUSALEM -- The Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel was the greatest security failure of Benjamin Netanyahu's career. Less than three years later, the Israeli prime minister is pursuing what may become his defining strategic achievement: toppling the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The campaign, undertaken side by side with the Americans, would transform the region's strategic landscape with Israel as an unrivaled military power. And it would mark a stunning success for Netanyahu, who has long argued that the threat from Tehran isn't only Israel's problem but America's as well.

Central to that success was Netanyahu's belief that the most important audience for Israel's case against Iran was the American president.

"He poured his efforts into an audience of one -- President Trump," said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu.

The strategy helped bring the U.S. directly into Israel's confrontation with Iran. But it also leaves both leaders exposed if the campaign falters.

The risks remain high. The American public largely opposes the campaign, and parts of Trump's MAGA base accuse Netanyahu of dragging the U.S. into Israel's war. Iran's regime could survive and draw the U.S. into a prolonged conflict blamed on Israel. If it collapses, Iran could fracture and destabilize the region.

"If the regime will not fall, it will be hard for Bibi to claim victory, " said Bushinsky, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.

His focus on winning over Trump was a departure from his long-held view that the path to influence in Washington ran through American voters. Netanyahu was a frequent guest on cable news, arguing Israel's case directly to the public.

This time, he has taken an unusual back-seat role in driving the public rhetoric in the U.S. Netanyahu has emphasized Trump's central role in the war and credited the president with key decisions, portraying him as the driving force behind the effort against Iran. In television interviews and public statements, Netanyahu has stressed that Trump acts in America's interests and makes his own decisions.

That approach is playing to Trump's instincts. "He has figured out how to persuade and partner with and flatter Trump in ways that have been extremely effective in advancing his goals," said Daniel Shapiro, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

While he has given way to Trump in the international press, at home, Netanyahu, who faces election this year, has been busy in Hebrew, emphasizing his wartime leadership image and brandishing his personal relationship with the American president.

Throughout the war, the prime minister's office has sent out a steady flow of images and videos of Netanyahu, always dressed fully in black, from missile impact sites, military bases and security consultations. He frequently mentions his personal relationship with Trump in them. In one set of videos and images from an Israeli air base, Netanyahu appears surrounded by American and Israeli pilots standing at attention, behind him an F-22 jet fighter along with American and Israeli flags.

"I want to again thank my friend President Trump for the cooperation between us and between Israel and the United States. Together we'll achieve our aims, God willing," Netanyahu says, with "Top Gun"-style rock music playing in the background. For now, most Jewish Israelis give Netanyahu high marks for handling the war. A poll released this week by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute found that 74% of Jewish Israelis and 16% of Arab Israelis trust Netanyahu to manage the conflict with Iran.

Even so, Netanyahu remains one of the most polarizing figures in Israeli politics.

"He's a terrible leader," said Israeli historian Benny Morris. "He's divided the country into social fragments which are at each other's throats."

Morris said Netanyahu was right to warn for years about the dangers posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions. But he argued that the prime minister's record on domestic politics and the Palestinian conflict outweigh his work on Iran.

Some current and former U.S. officials say the Trump-Netanyahu partnership echoes past wartime alliances between leaders who understood the importance of securing American backing. During World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill focused intensely on winning the support of President Franklin Roosevelt. Decades later, President Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher forged a close partnership in confronting the Soviet Union.

"Their relationship is a professional relationship. They don't do social stuff together," said Victoria Coates, who was deputy national security adviser for the Middle East and North Africa during Trump's first term. "They have an understanding of the mutual interests of the United States and Israel."

Netanyahu has long looked to Churchill as a model for leadership, said Ofir Akunis, the Israeli consul general to the U.S. in New York. At times, his speeches have even echoed lines from the wartime British prime minister.

But such alliances don't necessarily translate into political survival. Churchill led Britain to victory in World War II only to lose the election that followed. "The irony would be that if he wins the war, he could lose the election," said Michael Oren, a historian and former Israeli ambassador to Washington under Netanyahu. "People care about other things."

Despite a series of military successes since Oct. 7, 2023, Netanyahu's coalition has failed to return to majority support, according to most polls.

The opening to confront Iran didn't come immediately. Early in the war, Israeli officials were wary of provoking a direct confrontation with Tehran.

That calculus began to shift after Israel, with U.S. help, successfully defended against an Iranian barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones in April 2024, said Shapiro, who worked closely as a member of the Biden administration with Israeli officials during the conflict.

At the time, talk in Israel of fundamentally reshaping the region raised eyebrows among some Biden administration officials, Shapiro said. Israel was mired in wars in Gaza and Lebanon with no clear victory in sight. Yet Israeli security officials who had previously spoken more cautiously began echoing Netanyahu's rhetoric about changing the Middle East, Shapiro said.

"Here we are two years later, and they've come pretty close to reshaping the Middle East," said Shapiro, who emphasized Netanyahu is still at risk of overreaching and hubris. "Some of it was luck, some of it was mistakes and miscalculations by their enemies -- but partially it was Netanyahu's determination to keep pushing and doing it in partnership with Trump."

Write to Dov Lieber at dov.lieber@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 07, 2026 22:00 ET (03:00 GMT)

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