金吾财讯 | 中泰国际发研报指，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)FY25股东净利润同比下跌63.8%至4.4亿元(澳元，下同)，较该机构预测5.9亿元低25.0%，主因其他经营开支及折旧/摊销分别上升28.8%及3.7%至3.9亿元及7.8亿元。虽然如此，按每吨商品煤计算，FY25现金经营成本(不含特许权使用费)同比下跌1.1%至92元，接近公司指引89-97元的下限，也低于该机构预测94元。早前多家国际科技龙头调升AI业务的资本开支预算，料将加强数据中心发展，并最终增加对能源需求。这将有利煤炭售价及销量长远上升。该机构保守预计公司FY26-27煤炭平均售价分别同比上升2.4%及1.8%，同期权益煤炭销量则同比增长2.0%及1.3%。综合上述，该机构认为公司盈利已经触底。经过调整预测后，该机构预计FY26-27股东净利润分别同比上升28.1%及9.4%。基于AI行业发展支持能源需求可提升行业估值的判断，该机构将目标价由31.20港元上调至39.00港元，对应10.2%上行空间及16.5倍FY26市盈率。该机构维持“增持”评级。
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