Al Root

Figuring out how Wall Street analysts value Tesla stock is about as hard as determining why a Tesla Cybertruck looks the way it does.

There are endless ways to value stocks, including: multiples of sales; net income; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda; and book value. As well as sum-of-the-parts, or SOTP, valuations, which try to value each business segment within a corporation separately.

SOTP valuations are popular with Tesla as analysts look to value hard-to-value AI-related businesses, including robo-taxis and humanoid robots, along with the core electric-vehicle and energy-storage businesses.

The problem for investors is that Wall Street's numbers for each of Tesla's businesses are all over the place. Take robots. BofA analyst Alexander Perry launched coverage on Tesla stock on Wednesday with a Buy rating and $460 price target.

He values the nascent robot business at about $8 a share, a fraction of his target price. Self-driving technologies account for closer to $325 per share. The EV business is worth almost $90 a share.

That value for EVs makes Tesla's car business worth about $330 billion, or a little less than Toyota Motor.

Those are all fine estimates. But there are others. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu values the robot business at $124 per share, more than 15 times what BofA values it at. He values Tesla's self-driving technology at $230 a share, about $100 less than Perry's.

Yu, like Perry, is a Tesla bull, however, rating shares Buy. His price target for Tesla stock is $480. So is Baird analyst Ben Kallo. His price target for Tesla stock is $548, based on 74 times estimated 2030 Ebitda discounted back at a rate of 9%. "This is a premium to large-cap, high-growth peers...which we believe is justified given its growth prospects and several tailwinds," he wrote.

Ebitda multiples are another way to value stocks. So are discounted cash-flow models. That's what Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, a Tesla bear who rates shares Sell, uses. His price target is $125.

The result of the methodological madness is that the gap between top and bottom price targets on Wall Street is about $475, more than 100% of the current stock price. The gap for Apple shares is closer to 40% of the current stock price.

To be sure, Apple is an easier business to value than Tesla, with steadier growth rates and cash flows. That's no comfort to investors trying to figure out what Tesla is worth.

These days, Elon Musk's EV maker is all about an AI future. What fleets of AI-trained robots and robo-taxis are worth, however, is still anyone's guess.

Tesla stock was edging up 0.1% in early trading Thursday at $406.44, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were each falling about 0.4%.

Shares rose 3.4% on Wednesday, helped by Perry's new rating.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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March 05, 2026 04:16 ET (09:16 GMT)

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