By Doug Busch
After a meaningful pullback, private credit stocks may present a timely buying opportunity.
Publicly traded lenders and alternative asset managers have come under pressure amid concerns over credit quality and liquidity. Many now show technical support with sentiment at a low point. As spreads widen and volatility rises, the risk may already be reflected in these stocks' prices. This creates setups where downside is measurable and upside could emerge quickly, especially if stability returns.
Let's examine two names caught up in the maelstrom.
KKR & Co. is clearly struggling, down 27% so far this year. The stock is now 39% off its most recent 52-week high but is attempting to end a seven-week losing streak. KKR is rallying this morning, up more than 6% on news its executives are buying more stock. It is forming a bullish piercing line candle at the 200-week simple moving average.
Looking at its daily chart shows a compelling risk/reward scenario. Note the stock could be forming a double bottom near the very round $90 level that formed with the lows last April. Candles were instrumental with consecutive doji candles on Sept. 22 and Sept. 23, as it failed to clear a double bottom base. Those dojis are adept at signaling potential trend changes, and that's exactly what happened. On Dec. 12, the stock completed a bearish evening star and is now well below the downward sloping 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. A bullish piercing line candle was recorded March 2, which gives a good area to play against on the long side. On a tactical basis I think the stock can travel toward $110 by mid 2026, which would be a gain of 18% from current prices. Remain bullish above $85. KKR was trading around $93 Wednesday.
Apollo Global Management has faltered over the last year, dropping 21%. The stock trades 31% off its annual peak and is on a current nine week losing streak. But here too the stock is rebounding, bouncing near the very round par number this week. That level previously saw similar rebounds in August 2024 and April 2025. This week APO is up 4%.
Looking at the daily chart, one can see the weakness that began in December on the ratio chart against the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF. Last week saw a bearish death cross with the 50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day. Interestingly, this didn't negatively affect the stock last April. Volume was robust in February, and it could be washing out. I like how the stock recorded a bullish piercing line right at the very round par number on March 2, just like it did on April 7. I think an entry here with a tight stop offers an attractive risk profile. I look for the stock to travel toward $135 by mid-2026, which would represent a gain of 24% from current prices. Remain bullish above $97. APO was trading around $108 Wednesday.
When fear peaks near support, opportunity often follows.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 04, 2026 11:39 ET (16:39 GMT)
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