继续关注上行风险，内外价差或再次扩大。昨日，国际原油高位震荡。地缘情绪的略微缓和叠加资产轮动，油价一度小幅回调。我们认为，油价的上行风险没有解除。从基本面看，目前霍尔木兹海峡的大规模封锁还在延续。即便战火褪去，船队心态上的观望以及保险公司天价的保费用都会大幅抑制油价上行。如果一周内美国、以色列与伊朗不出和谈信号，Brent有机会挑战85-90美元/桶区间。此外，我们注意到SC走势近期强于外盘。考虑到居高不下的运费以及当前较低的仓单，SC在04合约上存在一定的交割压力，需进一步关注上行风险。中长期看，巴西图皮原油也可作为SC交割品，需耐心等待运费回落。在策略方面，内外盘原油多单、正套持有，多SC空Brent、多SC空Dubai策略持有。当然，考虑到地缘本身的复杂性，以及油价持续飙涨引发的经济反噬，未来波动率或再次放大，投资者需注意防范各类风险。
（文章来源：国泰君安期货）
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