金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，26年2月以来，中东地缘紧张局势蔓延，俄罗斯、委内瑞拉等受制裁影响出口受限，叠加美国寒潮天气扰动产量，2月27日WTI/Brent期货价格收于67.02/72.48美元/桶，较1月末上涨2.8%/2.5%。该机构认为地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，美以对伊发动联合军事行动下，霍尔木兹海峡短期运输受阻风险或显著提升，叠加旺季需求回升及全球性储备性累库，预计26年Brent原油均价为70美元/桶。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及“利重于量”诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头或将显现配置机遇；油价筑底后库存损失减少，炼化有望迎来底部景气反转。
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