【券商聚焦】中国银河对2月PMI分析:PMI季节性回落 一季度力争开门稳

金吾财讯
Mar 05

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指,国家统计局3月4日发布数据:2026年2月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降0.3个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.2%(前值48.8%);服务业商务活动指数为49.7%(前值49.5%)。整体来看,2月PMI回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动,供需两端均出现阶段性放缓,生产活动与订单指标同步回落,但幅度基本符合历史季节性规律。从结构上看,电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度,而纺织服装、汽车等传统行业需求仍偏弱,制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方面,上游原材料价格指数边际回落,出厂价格保持稳定,成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛,若该趋势延续,将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方面,产成品库存下降而原材料库存小幅回升,整体库存仍处于波动状态,企业普遍采取“以销定产”的谨慎策略,库存维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来,随着春节因素逐步消退,3月制造业生产活动预计会修复,生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面,OECD综合领先目前指向到6月份我国出口累计同比延续温和上行,意味着外需仍具有韧性;内需则仍有赖于政策进一步发力以及终端消费和投资需求的改善。政策层面,坚持高质量发展、统筹内外均衡、坚守底线思维或是2026年的政策主线。扩大内需继续作为年度头号任务。在地缘风险上升的情况下,产业安全和科技自主会进一步加强。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10