【券商聚焦】招银国际:卡塔尔减产将进一步加剧供应风险,利好铝价

金吾财讯
Mar 05

金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示,由Horsk Hydro (NHY NO,未评级)和Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company (QAMC QD,未评级)各持股50%的合资企业Qatalum宣布,已于3月3日起启动电解铝的受控停产,主要由于卡塔尔当地天然气供应受限。Qatalum预计停产将于3月底完成。据该公司称,全面重启生产可能需要6至12个月,目前尚未确定具体的重启时间。该机构指,Qatalum的铝额定年产能为64.8万吨,最大产能为69万吨。Qatalum在2025年满负荷生产,该机构估计其产量约占全球总产量的0.9%。Qatalum并未提及受控停产的规模,但该机构推测其规模可能相当大。该机构认为Qatalum的减产,加上伊朗约62万吨的产能处于不确定状态(当地目前运营风险高,详见该机构此前分析报告),将进一步加剧2026年铝供应的紧张。鉴于中东地区的不确定性,该机构不排除看到该地区出现进一步减产(中东在2025年约占全球铝产量的9%)。与此同时,该机构预计印尼的产能建设进展缓慢。这些因素将为铝价带来进一步的上升空间(该机构的基本假设是铝价今年同比上涨15%)。在当前市场波动的背景下,该机构认为中国电解铝生产商是抗风险以及对冲伊朗危机的良好标的。重申对中国宏桥(01378)和创新实业(02788)的“买入”评级。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10