Asia Week Ahead: Inflation Prints, Unemployment Data and Trade Statistics

MT Newswires
Mar 09

For the week ahead in Asia, markets will be focused on a slate of inflation, trade, and growth data.

The week begins Monday with China's closely watched inflation print, alongside Taiwan's February trade stats.

Attention then shifts on Tuesday to China's trade figures, while revised fourth-quarter GDP readings from Japan and South Korea should also be in focus.

Midweek, investors will parse Japan's producer price data and Malaysia's unemployment rate, and Thursday brings India's February inflation print and Australia's consumer inflation expectations.

The week wraps up on Friday with unemployment data from Singapore and the Philippines, as well as fresh manufacturing and industrial activity readings from New Zealand and Hong Kong.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, March 9

The week kicked off with the release of China's closely watched inflation figures.

The world's second-largest economy recorded a 1.3% year-on-year rise in its February consumer price index, accelerating from the 0.2% increase in January.

The figure exceeded the 0.8% estimate by analysts polled by Reuters.

China's producer prices stayed in deflationary territory in February at 0.9%, though the rate of decline mellowed from the 1.4% decrease in January.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected producer prices to decline by 1.2%.

Economists at ING said they expected to see a rise in China's inflation data thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year, while the impact of higher oil prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict was unlikely to be seen before the March print.

Later Monday, Taiwan reports its trade figures for February, with the island nation's balance of payment surplus seen to be declining to $14.6 billion from the $18.89 billion recorded in January, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

Results from Indonesia's February consumer confidence survey are also due later Monday.

TUESDAY, March 10

China's trade data for the first two months of the year will capture headlines on Tuesday.

Analysts expect China's trade surplus for the period ended Feb. 28 to rise to $182 billion from the $114.1 billion recorded in December, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

ING, which is forecasting a trade surplus of $188.1 billion, said it expects data to show that external demand remained resilient at the start of the year and that export growth outpaced imports.

Both South Korea and Japan will report their final fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth rate.

Preliminary figures released by Japan in February showed the economy grew by 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, but ING said the figure could be revised to 0.3% thanks to stronger-than-expected capital spending.

South Korea's real GDP increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the same period last year, following a 1.8% annual expansion in the prior quarter, according to an advance estimate released in January.

ING did not forecast any change in the January figures.

Japan will also report its machine tool orders for February on Tuesday.

A pair of confidence reports in Australia will also be in the news.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index report should capture reactions to the widening conflict in the Middle East after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks, Westpac said in a preview.

Meanwhile, the NAB Business Survey will offer a pulse on business conditions in Australia during February.

Elsewhere, Indonesia will report its January retail sales figures, while Malaysia will report industrial production stats for the month.

WEDNESDAY, March 11

Japan's producer prices will capture attention on Wednesday.

Economists at ING said they expect producer price inflation to remain relatively stable at 2.2% year on year for February. The PPI showed a 2.3% rise in January.

In Malaysia, the January unemployment rate will be due.

Joblessness has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2025, and Trading Economics expects this trend to continue with a forecast of 2.8% compared with 2.9% in December.

THURSDAY, March 12

Markets will be on the lookout for India's February inflation print under the new data series.

ANZ Research expects consumer prices to have risen by 3.3% year on year during the month, driven by food inflation, the Wall Street Journal reported.

According to the bank, the acceleration from 2.1% in January is unlikely to bother policymakers who will instead be focused on global geopolitical risks, the WSJ added.

Australia's consumer inflation expectations will also feature on Thursday. Last month, inflation expectations were at their highest since June 2025 at 5%.

Meanwhile, Malaysia will report retail sales data for January.

FRIDAY, March 13

The week rounds off with a pair of unemployment reports from Singapore and the Philippines.

While Singapore's unemployment data will cover the final months of 2025, the Philippines will report its unemployment rate for January.

According to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics, Singapore's unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 2% during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Similarly, Trading Economics is forecasting no change to the Philippines' unemployment rate of 4.4%.

In New Zealand, the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index will shed light on the health of the country's manufacturing sector.

Hong Kong will report its fourth-quarter industrial production figures, while Thailand releases its February consumer confidence survey.

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