By Callum Keown
Oil prices traded around $90 a barrel on Tuesday after remarks from the president, defense secretary, and Iranian officials seemed to indicate that a quick end to the war isn't guaranteed. A potential decision to release reserves by the Group of Seven countries, which are meeting today, could keep prices in check.
After reaching nearly $120 on Monday, oil futures fell under $100 on news that the G-7 is prepared to release its reserves to help keep supply steady. They fell further when President Donald Trump told CBS the Iran War was "very complete."
Prices were up slightly on Tuesday, however. Brent crude futures were trading at roughly $93 a barrel, off earlier lows of $88, while West Texas Intermediate futures were at $89, up from $84 earlier in the morning.
That increase looks to be due to mixed signals about when the war might end. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would "determine the end of the war," in a statement, according to multiple reports.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out talks with the U.S. in an interview with PBS News, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The IRGC also said that it would not allow a single liter of oil to be exported from the region. Trump hit back, issuing a threat to Iran.
"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Tuesday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran was "badly losing" and suggested that the war would end "on our timeline and at our choosing." He added that Tuesday will be the most intense day of strikes on Iran.
Some of Trump's advisors have privately urged him to look for an exit plan, The Wall Street Journal reported, amid concerns over the political fallout of higher oil prices. Trump is weighing up several options to ease oil prices, including releasing emergency reserves, Reuters reported Monday.
The G-7 are expected to meet again on Tuesday morning to continue to discuss releasing emergency oil reserves. They stopped short of doing so on Monday but the group said "we stand ready to take necessary measures, " including a stockpile release. That could be one reason prices are under $100.
J.P. Morgan analysts estimated that a coordinated release of around 1.2 million barrels a day was "feasible, but it would not offset potential losses" of up to 12 million barrels a day over the next two weeks, in a note Tuesday.
They added that restricting U.S. exports of crude would likely push domestic prices lower by trapping supply in the U.S., but "over the longer term it would discourage production and tighten global markets." That, in turn, would put upward pressure on global and U.S. fuel prices, they said.
But perhaps the only way to significantly reduce oil prices is to end the war.
Until then, oil prices are still susceptible to wild swings.
Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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March 10, 2026 09:33 ET (13:33 GMT)
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