【券商聚焦】华泰证券:美以伊冲突下油价高涨或将推升电价

金吾财讯
12 hours ago

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,美以伊冲突下全球油价大幅上涨,带动海外煤价上涨,基于华泰预期,2026年我国北港5500大卡动力煤价格中枢将上移至750元/吨附近。该机构测算若港口5500大卡动力煤价格上涨50元/吨(含税),能源价格传导下批发侧电价将上涨2.9%,对应工业电价上涨2.0%-2.2%;token出海带来的AIDC绿电需求提升有望推升绿证价格,当前绿证价格仅为碳价的9%,若绿证价格提升至与碳价持平,则批发电价将增厚15%,工业电价将增厚10-11%。煤价上涨带来的市场化电价提升更有利于成本稳定的清洁能源,同时推荐经营更稳健的煤电联营公司。

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