花旗：维持国泰航空(00293)“沽售”评级目标价11.2港元

智通财经

Mar 12

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，国泰航空(00293)公布截至去年12月底止全年业绩，其中下半年核心利润为61亿元，同比增长7%。撇除联营公司贡献后的核心利润为54亿元，较上半年增长43%，同比增长8%。去年全年业绩达成花旗及市场全年预测的107%和108%。撇开中东冲突因素，花旗维持国泰“沽售”评级，主要基于中国出境旅游增长疲软等，并予其目标价11.2港元。

国泰表示，在中东紧张局势升级前，其长途航班的载客率已十分充足，目前看到前往欧洲及澳大拉西亚地区(占运力组合约29%)的短期需求激增; 而南亚(4%)与北美(26%)的中转客流需求亦出现短期激增。不利因素方面，国泰已对2026年预计燃油用量的30%，以每桶70美元布油价格作对冲，因此将完全承受航空燃油裂解价差扩大的风险。

花旗预计，若今年现货航空燃油价格从每桶78美元上涨10美元，国泰航空需要将欧洲、澳大拉西亚地区和南亚(这三个地区直接受益于中东枢纽航班中断)的客运单位收入提高约10%，才能完全抵销燃油价格上涨影响。对必须出行的旅客而言，短期内(即1-2个月)是可行的。但根据ScienceDirect的数据，全球机票价格需求弹性为-0.87倍，显示在其他条件不变的情况下，机票价格上涨会导致出行需求下降。

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