摩根士丹利以“拐点将至，增长重启”发表报告称，海底捞(6862.HK)不会再原地踏步，在宏观利好和管理层带动下，会重新进入增长轨道，将目标价调高23%，由17.5港元上调至21.5港元。最乐观情景估值显示，目标价为42港元，即潜在升幅1.4倍。最悲观情景下，目标价11港元，有约35%潜在跌幅。大摩表示，整体风险回报吸引，约5厘股息率亦为股价提供进一步的下行保护，重申“增持”评级。 大摩指出，内地宏观环境正逐步改善，从通缩转向“低通胀”，政策顺风支持消费，同时竞争环境趋于缓和，另外，海底捞创办人兼主席张勇重新担任首席执行官，标志着该公司战略重心转向更快的执行节奏和重新扩张。 大摩预期海底捞的同店销售增长将于今年起转正、翻台率回升、门店网路扩张有望重启，在基准情境下，这两大因素将推动股价突破过去3年12至20元的区间震荡。预期2025至27年收入年均增长约10%，每股盈利复合年增长率约27%。
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