The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1056 GMT - China's export and import growth surged in January-February, but Nomura analysts take that with a grain of salt. The exceptionally strong print was very likely distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, even when combining the two months to calculate on-year growth. One strong piece of evidence is the import growth of nearly 20%, which is inconsistent with China's domestic demand trends. They expect both export and import growth to return to the pace observed in late 2025--around 5%-6%. The conflict in the Middle East and constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may weigh on trade to some markets, but Nomura still expects China's exports to remain a key driver of growth, as the manufacturing sector--already one-third of the world's total--gains further ground. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

1032 GMT - Current rallies in equities and bonds on hopes of an end to the Middle East war should be viewed as a relief rally, not a return to normal trading, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank say in a note. "This is no time for complacency, and the Gulf region has seen missile and drone threats again over the past 24 hours," the UAE-based bank's analysts say. The latest moves "should certainly not be interpreted as indicating a comprehensive shift back toward a full risk-on bias." Sentiment improved after U.S. President Trump signaled a potential near-term end to the Iran war. Nonetheless, after Monday's severe volatility, "we understand why markets are proving quick to grab hold of any optimism in the short-term." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1024 GMT - The cost of default protection for euro-denominated credit falls amid renewed optimism after U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday indicated that the Middle East war could end soon. The president's comments eased concerns about a prolonged war and revived appetite for risk assets. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 15 basis points to 276bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS falls 4bps to 58bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1008 GMT - It is still not immediately clear what the ultimate objectives for the U.S. and Israel are in the Middle East, Janus Henderson Investors' Oliver Blackbourn and Adam Hetts say in a note. "Various intentions have been publicly stated but it is not clear which of these are red lines and which are just preferences," the asset managers say. A further reduction of the potential for Iran to build nuclear weapons appears to be the closest to a requisite, but given that strikes in 2025 were deemed to have achieved this, defining the outcome is difficult, they say. A desire to destroy Iran's long-range missile program has been expressed, they say. It also remains unclear how a regime change can be achieved with airstrikes alone. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1002 GMT - The Bank of England could cut interest rates in the coming months, lowering the bank rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026, Berenberg's Andrew Wishart says in a note. The BOE is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% at its March 19 decision due to higher oil and gas prices since the start of the Middle East war. These higher prices have reignited inflation concerns, promoting investors to scale back U.K. rate-cut expectations. However, the U.K.'s weak jobs market, decelerating wage growth and higher energy costs will hamper consumer spending and likely contain inflation, Wishart says. Sustained high energy prices could delay rate cuts but are unlikely to put an end to them, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0950 GMT - Sterling could rise slightly further against the euro as U.K. interest-rate expectations shift more significantly in its favor compared to the eurozone's following the recent oil price rally on the Iran war, ING's Chris Turner says. "The euro short-term rate has been marked 65 basis points higher and sterling overnight index swaps a whopping 80bp," he says in a note. This is probably a function of U.K. inflation already being well above target and the Bank of England having enough policymakers willing to call time on rate cuts, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8652 pounds after reaching a one-month low of 08640 pounds earlier, LSEG data show, and ING sees a risk of it falling to 0.8600-0.8615. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0942 GMT - Chinese exports will likely remain robust, supported by lower U.S. tariffs and strong semiconductor demand, Capital Economics says in a note. China economist Zichun Huang notes that export and import data for January and February came in well above market expectations, with the timing of the Lunar New Year this year likely generating favorable base effects. Most notably, the share of exports to the U.S. rose, a trend Huang expects to continue in the coming months as new U.S. tariff changes disproportionately benefit China. On imports, the Middle East conflict is likely to raise China's oil import bill. However, this should be partially offset by lower purchase volumes, as China turns to strategic petroleum reserves to meet demand. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0924 GMT - The disruption to the international oil and gas markets is less likely to be prolonged, IBOSS chief economist Rupert Thompson says in a note. "Our base case remains that the bulk of the disruption to the energy markets should last for no more than a few weeks," he says. The global economy is also in good shape and likely to withstand the energy-price shock seen in recent days due to the Middle East war, Thompson says. "We do not expect the surge in energy prices to derail the global economic recovery." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0918 GMT - The dollar's declines after President Trump said the Iran war could end soon are likely to be limited, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. What matters most is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and restart of oil production across the Middle East, he says. "Until investors receive headlines on that score, presumably relating to some kind of ceasefire, we doubt the dollar is going to quickly hand back all the gains made over the last two weeks." It seems too early to expect the DXY dollar index to fall significantly back under 98.000 for now, he says. The DXY falls to a one-week low of 98.492. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0914 GMT - China's exports are likely to remain broadly stable, with ANZ Research's assumption that the artificial-intelligence driven demand narrative is still in place. As China's export prices are still relatively competitive, it might be able to transfer some of its costs to buyers, say Vicky Xiao Zhou and Zhaopeng Xing in a report. Commodity rallies will also probably shape the import landscape, as commodities comprise about a third of China's total imports. The country's import growth is expected to recover and show positive numbers after stagnating at 0% in 2025. "This could mechanically narrow the trade surplus and improve its optics," ANZ says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0831 GMT - Even as oil prices cool, emerging signs indicate that the supply shock is beginning to weigh on economic activity in Asia, Barclays economists say. Similar to the Philippines, Thailand has approved requirements for most government agencies to implement work-from-home arrangements to reduce energy use, and officials have been asked to suspend non-essential travel. In Taiwan, the government announced a 50% tax cut on gasoline and diesel to stabilize gasoline and diesel prices, while Korea has hinted at a supplementary budget to support those affected. "This is in line with our view that the [Korean] government would need more fiscal resources to mitigate the impact of higher fuel cost to the consumers," the Barclays economics team says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0830 GMT - The euro rises to a one-week high against the dollar as oil prices fall after President Trump signalled the Iran war could soon end. "It's not clear that the euro-dollar needs to rally much more today unless we see some material progress towards a ceasefire," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The euro has recently come under pressure as higher oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict raise concerns about negative impact on the eurozone's terms of trade. Offsetting the impact slightly, however, is the market reassessing its European Central Bank interest-rate expectations, with a chance of a rate rise now priced in this year, LSEG data show. The euro rises to a high of $1.1663. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 10, 2026 06:56 ET (10:56 GMT)

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