金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，6G进入标准与工程化攻坚期，运营商和关键设备耗材提供商是当前6G投资主线。ITU和3GPP已明确6G（IMT-2030）时间表，Release21作为首个6G规范版本预计在2028–2029年冻结、2030年左右迎来首批商用系统，行业进入5G-A过渡+6G预研的双线推进阶段。在此背景下，三大运营商Capex结构正由传统基站建设向5G-A、算力和卫星互联网等新方向倾斜。该机构提到，卫星互联网是6G实现泛在连接的关键抓手。未来移动通信系统将从业务、体制、频谱、系统等多层面推进卫星通信与地面通信一体化，构建空天地一体化网络，实现三维全球无缝覆盖；非地面网络（NTN）自R16纳入3GPP体系。卫星互联网通过大规模通信卫星组网向陆海空天终端提供宽带接入服务，其优势在于单位面积覆盖成本低，适合基站建设不足的海洋、沙漠和偏远地区。经过初代星座探索后，中美头部星座正加速切换至具备星间链路的“星上组网”模式，以降低对地面信关站的依赖、这为具备基站与卫星载荷设计能力的通信设备厂商打开了新一轮增长空间。
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