金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭和中东天然气生产的受限，导致过去一周天然气价格（TTF 1个月远期合约）上涨70%。天然气的短缺和价格飙升短期内可能会促使能源结构从天然气转向受干扰较小的煤炭。历史上，海运动力煤价格与欧洲天然气价格走势一致，过去十年二者呈现着高度正相关（相关系数: 0.86）。鉴于兖澳(03668)的销售中动力煤占比高（2025年达到84%），该机构认为兖澳将在短期内受益。该机构预计动力煤价格每上涨1%，兖澳的盈利将增长5%。维持“买入”评级，基于净现值 (NPV) 的目标价为38港元。该机构目前的盈利预测和目标价尚未反映伊朗危机可能导致的煤炭价格上涨。
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