【券商聚焦】国泰海通:消费板块全年复苏确定性高 建议把握政策与基本面共振的四条主线

金吾财讯
Mar 09

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示,2026年政府工作报告将扩大内需、提振消费置于战略核心,政策呈现“稳基调、强工具、提效能、优结构”四大特征:①定位更稳:延续“提振消费专项行动”,消费仍是经济增长第一拉动力,政策连贯性强;②工具更实:新设1000亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金,叠加2500亿元特别国债支持以旧换新,财政+金融组合发力;③根基更深:首次提出城乡居民增收计划,聚焦低收入群体增收、财产性收入、社保完善,从“能消费”向“敢消费、愿消费”突破;④结构更优:重点发力服务消费提质、线下消费回暖、下沉市场激活,清理消费限制,释放文旅、康养、体育消费潜力。

2026年消费政策“力度不减、结构更优、长效性更强”,在“增收+财政金融协同+服务消费升级”三重驱动下,消费板块全年复苏确定性高,建议把握政策与基本面共振的四条主线:①服务业复苏:政策明确提出服务消费提质惠民行动,优化休假制度、活跃线下消费、清理消费限制;②大众消费(涨价线):增收计划托底低收入群体边际消费,以旧换新支撑大众消费,CPI温和回升,食品饮料、日化、家电、汽车等品类有望受益;③新消费:打造消费新场景、培育新增长点,重点关注美妆、黄金珠宝、新式茶饮、文创娱乐赛道;④情绪消费:居民预期改善,休闲、悦己、体验型消费回暖。

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