AI预测权威:我还是低估了AI的速度,今年年底实现“AI研发自动化”真的有可能

华尔街见闻
12 hours ago

人工智能能力的跃升速度,正在让最严谨的预测者也措手不及。 知名AI预测研究者Ajeya Cotra近日公开承认,她仅在两个月前发布的2026年AI进展预测已显著偏于保守。触发这一自我修正的,是Anthropic最新模型Claude Opus 4.6在权威评测机构METR基准测试中的表现,该模型的软件工程"时间跨度"已达约12小时,远超Cotra此前预测的2026年底约24小时水平。这意味着AI在...

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