Tiger Brokers

港股异动 | 铜业股延续下行趋势 花旗强调短期铜价面临显著下行风险 库存累积压制价格上行空间

智通财经
Mar 09

智通财经APP获悉，铜业股延续下行趋势，截至发稿，洛阳钼业(03993)跌6.82%，报19.96港元；江西铜业股份(00358)跌6.25%，报38.38港元；中国有色矿业(01258)跌6.08%，报12.36港元；五矿资源(01208)跌5.67%，报8.48元；紫金矿业(02899)跌5.43%，报37.94港元。

花旗此前强调，在伊朗冲突持续期间，铜价面临显著下行风险，未来几周，铜价跌至每吨12,000美元以下的可能性确实存在，因海湾地区能源基础设施和航运持续受到干扰下，市场会因美联储减息预期及周期性增长预期转弱，而进一步平仓铜。花旗认为，基本金属对持续冲突的风险敞口偏淡，因为对能源供应冲击的担忧，将促使市场重新评估降息预期，并受到通胀压力和美元走强的影响。

华源证券指出，上周铜库存大幅累积，伦铜/纽铜/沪铜库存分别为28.4 万吨/59.8 万短吨/42.5 万吨，环比变化+12.07%/-0.60%/+8.59%；国内电解铜社会库存57.7 万吨，环比+8.56%。该行认为，周铜库存持续累积，同时伊朗战争或衍生出衰退预期交易，压制铜价上行空间，预计铜价短期弱势震荡，关注节后下游复工及“金三银四”旺季到来对库存去化情况。

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