金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，中国2月份CPI反弹至1.3%，创近3年新高，主要得益于春节错月的基数效应和节假日期间旅游价格的飙升。对比往年1-2月份，食品和商品价格涨幅低于季节性表现，而除旅游外其他服务价格则保持温和。PPI再次超市场预期回升，主要受原油和有色金属等上游行业价格飙升的推动，而消费品PPI则相对低迷。该机构指，中国正在逐步摆脱通缩，但价格-工资传导机制的恢复仍然脆弱，因为通胀主要由供给驱动，而最终消费需求依然疲软。由于价格水平-企业盈利-家庭收入的传导机制仍然不平衡，该机构认为，要持久地打破通缩螺旋，需要持续的财政扩张以刺激需求侧，但今年两会的相关政策似乎弱于预期。展望未来，该机构预计CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数将从2025年的0.1%、-2.6%和-1%回升至2026年的1.1%、0.5%和0.8%。该机构预计中国人民银行将在短期内将主要依赖其结构性货币政策工具，可能会在2026年第二季度末将LPR和RRR分别下调10个和50个基点，因房地产市场持续疲软。
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