智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，基于三个关键原因，维持华润啤酒(00291)“买入”评级，目标价35.6港元：1)华润啤酒市场份额仍然在扩张，因其积极应对渠道碎片化及需求多元化；2)该股在过去六个月是中国消费品板块中明显的落后股，随着短期不明朗因素消除，预期股价将追落后；3)看到三个催化剂可能推动第二季的潜在估值重评，包括餐饮渠道可能复苏、第二季属旺季及6月世界杯。该行计划在最终业绩公布后检讨盈利预测。
在当前白酒下行周期中，对潜在商誉减值的担忧一直是过去六个月的重大不明朗因素，该行视华润啤酒盈警为消除疑虑的事件。此项减值约占与金沙相关的70亿元人民币商誉的40%，规模较预期大。润啤会否在2026年进一步计提减值，视乎白酒的基本面而定。至少目前而言，该行相信该金额已计入审慎假设。
华润啤酒的核心啤酒业务维持健康，预期该分部收入及股东应占纯利将在2025年同比增长低单位数及超过10%，而渠道查验显示，在中国三大啤酒商中，华润啤酒可能是2026年年初至今唯一录得销量正增长的公司。该行预期非现金减值对股息没有影响，而2025年派息率将高于2024年(52%)。
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