金吾财讯 | 华泰证券认为，全球钢铁行业2025-2030供需格局持续改善，2029年或转为短缺。海外供需格局于2024年由过剩转为短缺，2025年缺口扩大；2026-2030年预期将延续，中国出口则是平衡海外钢铁供需的必要补充。国内钢铁供应端收缩趋势于2021年开始确立，地产需求占比于2026年或降至13.2%（2020年占比39.4%），拖累接近尾声，国内钢铁需求或逐步进入平稳期；2026-2030年供需过剩格局将持续改善，鉴于海外持续短缺，一定量级的出口将成为“刚需”。全球钢铁行业景气度或进入持续上升期，国内建议关注显著受益的头部钢企、碳素等投资主线机遇。该机构看好钢铁行业景气程度的改善，关注头部钢企与电炉渗透率提升带来的重要机遇。该机构认为，符合《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》的企业将凭借能耗与碳排放指标优势确立竞争优势，而海外因为能源价格上涨导致电炉产线的停减产或为国内短流程优特钢出口腾出补位空间；同时，国内电炉钢占比持续提升或改善上游碳素耗材的供需结构。
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