Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】海通国际维持蒙牛乳业(02319)“优于大市”评级 指当前乳制品行业供需格局已现边际改善

金吾财讯
Mar 11

金吾财讯 | 海通国际研报指出，蒙牛乳业(02319)发布2025年业绩预告，受行业环境影响全年营收同比下滑7%-8%，叠加计提22-24亿元减值，归母净利润预计14-16亿元，业绩短期承压。本次业绩波动系风险出清与结构优化双重体现，公司基本面仍具韧性。该机构指，2025年乳制品行业需求、渠道、竞争格局持续变化，营收下滑削弱规模效应，全年经营利润率预计为7.9%-8.1%，较2024年微降0.1-0.3pct，但仍高于此前年度，成本及营销费用管控成效显著。同时公司持续发力新品研发与数字化投入，为后续核心竞争力提升夯实基础。该机构表示，当前乳制品行业供需格局已现边际改善，原奶价格企稳为乳企带来成本端利好，行业复苏在即。蒙牛作为乳业龙头，本次减值出清后资产质量进一步优化，轻装上阵迎接行业回暖；叠加“一体两翼”战略下的产品创新与渠道升级，高成长品类的持续发力将成为后续增长核心驱动力，短期业绩扰动不改中长期修复趋势。该机构预计公司2025-2027年营收分别为820.2/845.7/879.5亿元，归母净利润分别为14.7/44.6/53.9亿元，对应EPS为0.38/1.15/1.39元（前值为1.03/1.27/1.37元）。参考可比公司估值，该机构维持公司2026年20xPE，目标价由27.6港元下调至26.2港元（1CNY≈1.137HKD），维持“优于大市”评级。

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