金吾财讯 | 华泰证券对2月通胀数据点评，2026年2月中国CPI同比1.3%（前值0.2%），高于彭博一致预期的0.9%，环比增速较1月的0.2%快速上行至1%；PPI同比-0.9%（前值-1.4%），高于彭博一致预期的-1.1%，环比持平于1月的0.4%。总体而言，今年2月CPI、PPI回升幅度均超预期——一方面，春节错位抬升2月CPI同比读数， 1-2月平均录得约0.75%，延续去年11月以来的温和回升态势，尤其是核心CPI环比快速回升、显示通胀中枢稳步抬升，另一方面有色及油气链价格上涨、叠加AI相关需求走强，带动2月PPI超预期上行。往前看，若中东局势扰动加大推动油价超预期上行，不排除PPI转正时点较5月进一步提前。考虑到国际原油价格与国内PPI走势高度正相关，后续重点关注中东地缘政治冲突对油价冲击的扰动，以及对国内PPI的传导效果。
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