比推消息， 分析师表示，比特币下一阶段走势正越来越多受到宏观因素影响，包括油价、美债收益率及美联储货币政策，而非单纯的加密市场内部因素。在此前市场大规模去杠杆后，加密衍生品市场杠杆显著下降，市场结构发生变化，比特币正从“杠杆驱动的回调阶段”转向“宏观流动性驱动的盘整阶段”。在衍生品参与度下降的情况下，市场对整体流动性环境的敏感度明显上升。近期能源市场成为关键变量。过去三周国际油价从低点到高点上涨约 80%，在美伊冲突升级背景下，一度突破每桶 100 美元，油价上涨通常伴随美国实际收益率上升和美元走强，从而收紧全球流动性，并可能限制风险资产的短期上涨空间。与此同时，能源价格上涨也会推高通胀预期。由于能源在发达经济体 CPI 篮子中的占比约为 9%，持续的油价上涨可能推迟市场对降息的预期，使金融条件维持紧缩状态。分析师指出，比特币近期表现与科技股的相关性明显增强，而非传统避险资产如黄金。（The Block）
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