中泰证券:餐饮品牌连锁化率提升 利好龙头企业份额扩容

智通财经
Mar 13

智通财经APP获悉,中泰证券发布研报称,受宏观经济影响,叠加市场需求持续变化、市场结构进一步调整、餐饮行业经历了一轮快速洗牌,自25Q4出现企稳回升态势后,有望推动餐饮品牌连锁化率提升,利好龙头企业份额扩容。建议关注:1)快餐:门店规模数量领先、供应链体系完备、研发创新能力优异、具备多种门店模型的西式快餐龙头;2)火锅供应链;3)方便食品/半成品预制食材。

中泰证券主要观点如下:

步入提质增效新周期,品类表现分化

餐饮行业经过近三年的调整,已进入“精耕细作+存量整合+多元抗风险”的新周期,从2025年10月以来社零餐饮收入同比增速持续高于社零增速,2026年受益于最长春节假期及消费场景修复,餐饮行业呈现明显回暖态势,基本面边际向好。需求角度来看,消费者倾向于高频、强体验与强社交的品类集中,火锅、烧烤及西式快餐等品类整体增速优于行业平均水平。

政策支持强化,下沉市场值得关注

政策端,复盘近三年政策服务消费导向持续强化,2026年《政府工作报告》也明确提出指定实施城乡居民增收计划,活跃线下消费,激发下沉市场消费活力等,该行认为餐饮业有望受政策刺激带动,头部连锁企业下沉或将带动份额提升。

风险提示:消费需求疲弱,原料成本大幅上升,新品动销不及预期,研报信息更新不及时、第三方数据失真及市场规模测算偏差。

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