【券商聚焦】交银国际下调小米集团(01810)评级至中性 供应链成本上升 手机业务后续或承压

金吾财讯
Yesterday

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,存储等原材料价格上涨或持续影响手机业务在4Q25和2026年的营收和毛利率。综合看,该机构预计全球智能手机出货量在2026年同比下滑11%至11.3亿台。该机构下调小米集团(01810)2025/2026年智能手机业务收入至1,822/1,667亿元(人民币,下同,前值1,935/1,977亿元),下调2025/2026年手机毛利率至10.9%/6.8%(前值11.3%/9.4%)。该机构认为2026年小米订单或面临进一步竞争,基于目前产能情况,该机构认为今年汽车业务关注点或从供应端切向需求端,如2026年SU7改款以及新车型的订单情况。该机构预计小米2026年汽车销量为55.9万辆;预计2025/2026年智能电动汽车及AI等创新业务收入为1,040/1,436亿元,同时维持2025年全年经营收益转正的预测。该机构关注小米汽车出海进程。考虑到手机业务受存储涨价影响,及汽车业务竞争加剧,该机构下调2025/2026年收入预测至4,523/4,925亿元(前值4,666/5,340亿元),下调2025/26年经调整EPS至1.49/1.53元(前值1.66/1.74元)。该机构采用SOTP估值,基于22.0倍2026年手机xAIoT市盈率,1.4倍汽车及AI市销率,下调小米目标价到37港元,对应21.7倍2026年整体市盈率,下调至中性评级。

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