巴克莱的经济学家调整了对美联储下一次降息时间的预测，目前预计美联储将在9月而非6月下调利率。
由Marc Giannoni和Jonathan Millar等组成的巴克莱团队周五在报告中写道：“这一调整主要反映了我们对PCE通胀前景的上修，以及伊朗冲突带来的通胀上行风险增加”
注：道明证券将美联储下次降息的预测时间从6月推迟到9月。
巴克莱目前预计，美联储将在9月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将利率下调25个基点至3.25%-3.50%，随后在2027年3月再降息25个基点。
该行此前预计，美联储将于6月和12月降息。
巴克莱团队表示：“如果通胀压力持续时间长于预期，我们预计FOMC将进一步推迟降息。”
“相反，如果失业率突然上升—例如，由于能源价格大幅上涨及其对经济活动的负面影响—我们预计FOMC将更快且更激进地降息”。
责任编辑：陈钰嘉
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