金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，油运行业正迎来底层逻辑的重要变革，核心体现为 “库存棘轮效应” 的显现。此前行业普遍采用低库存、高周转的精益运营模式，而在霍尔木兹海峡封锁等极端供应链中断风险的冲击与潜在威胁下，各国对能源安全的考量底线迎来根本性重估。如同棘轮机制，地缘恐慌推升后的能源安全库存目标红线，难以回落至危机前水平。近期多国产油国频繁收紧原油出口政策，短期来看，此举虽对海运货盘形成压制，引发运价阶段性回调，实则持续将海外原油消费国的可用库存推向安全预警区间。断链焦虑催生叠加补库需求，集中释放将成运价上行核心催化剂。在供应链中断的强烈预期下，海外原油终端主体后续不仅需完成日常消耗的常规补库，还将加大资金投入搭建高水位的安全缓冲库存。由库存安全阈值上移催生的常规补库与安全补库叠加需求，若在政策边际松动或行业旺季临近阶段集中释放，将成为驱动油运行业下一轮运价大幅上行的核心催化因素。
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