【券商聚焦】中国银河:如果中东战事持续恶化,港股或面对进一步下行压力

金吾财讯
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金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指,美伊局势对港股的影响:如果中东战事持续恶化,港股或面对进一步下行压力,主要有以下四大原因。第一,伊朗控制着全球约 20% 石油贸易必经的霍尔木兹海峡。战事恶化或影响该海峡的石油运输,油价或进一步飙升,继而推高物流及经营成本,并进而推升通胀。对美联储来看,通胀升温或将令降息进程延后,这对港股估值会构成不利因素,港股进一步承压。第二,从资金流方面看,市场避险情绪令美元走强,全球机构投资者或减少风险资产配置,或带动资金从新兴市场港股流出。第三,对企业来说,中东战事或扰乱中东及欧亚航运,令供应链环节出现局部中断,内地企业出海运输成本或因而上升。第四,燃油开支占航运及航空公司的营运成本比例较高,亦将影响企业盈利表现。展望未来,港股最大优势是估值洼地,但在油价破百、通胀升温、避险情绪加剧的扰动下,并非所有低估值板块都值得买入。(1)可选消费以内需驱动为主,业绩增速领跑、ROE最高,具备抗成本压力的品牌溢价能力,是消费复苏核心受益者。(2)金融估值明显低估,短期虽受利率压制,但美伊若破局,资本市场回暖将催化其弹性修复。(3)科技板块,通信服务凭借稳健现金流+高股息+弱周期属性,兼具成长避险属性。软件服务既又低估值提供的安全垫,又有AI成长弹性。

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