美债收益率扩大涨幅,令金价承压。

TradingKey中文
Mar 13

TradingKey - 美国国债收益率本周持续坚挺,10年期美债收益率主要在4.1%至4.3%的区间内运行,并触及约4.27%的周内高点,显著高于本月初约4.05%的水平。由于债券价格与收益率呈反向变动,收益率的攀升反映出整个国债市场面临的新压力。即便在CPI数据符合预期之后,实际收益率仍继续小幅走高。

持有黄金等无息资产的机会成本(XAUUSD) 已经上升。结合走强的美元,黄金本周反复呈现出一种模式:最初受地缘政治避险需求推动而走高,但随后又因收益率走高和美元走强而被压回。

尽管中东局势紧张导致的油价高企推升了通胀预期和避险需求(这些都是金价的支撑因素),但收益率的上行已导致市场下调了对美联储今年降息的预期。这一转变已成为黄金面临的阻力。

金价不再呈现稳步上涨的趋势,而是在高位宽幅波动。每当美债收益率再度走强时,短期反弹往往会受到抑制。

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