金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指，本轮人民币升值周期中，相比外需的强劲与科技制造的异军突起，内需消费仍待改善，投资继续下滑，地产尚未企稳，呈现内外分化和供需失衡的二元格局，因此汇率走强更多是反应经济结构中强劲的外需和科技，而非整体经济尤其是疲弱的内需，所以汇率升值也应该更多对应的是表现更强的外需与科技，而非整体市场或者疲弱的内需板块。如果从这个结构性的视角来思考，而不去纠结汇率走势与整体市场的之间关系，上述的背离“困惑”也就迎刃而解了。去年9月以来出现了一些外部留存资金甚至外资回流的早期和积极迹象，银行净结汇创下新高，今年年初更是出现EPFR口径下主动外资连续7周的净流入。如果后续整体基本面尤其是内需部门能得到更多的政策支持倾斜，进而有效修复的话，那么可以预想的是吸引更大幅度的外资流入（尤其是一些看中经济“再平衡”的长期价值型的欧美资金），那对于整体市场的推动效果也将更为显著。否则在此之前，可能依然是以外需科技主导的结构型行情为主，这也与我们一直强调的信用周期框架和配置上跟随信用周期方向的思路一致。
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