金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，巴林铝业 (Aluminium Bahrain；ALBH BH, 未评级) 在周日公布由于霍尔木兹海峡的封锁对供应和运输的影响, 将把其年产162万吨的电解铝产能减产19%, 相当于约30.8万吨产量。巴林铝业将在减产期间为其产线进行维护，公告中未提及复产时间表。该机构估算巴林铝业这次的停产量相当于全球产量约0.4%，如果加上此前Qatalum在其69万吨的基础上减产40%（相当于约28万吨），已确定停产的产量（年化）已接近59万吨，相当于约0.8%全球产能。同时, 由于伊朗本身拥有62万吨的产能, 目前的生产状态高度不确定。短期内, 该机构不排除中东地区有进一步减产的可能（中东2025年占全球产量9%），相信铝价将获得进一步支持，该机构继续看好生产状态高度确定、并受惠铝价上升的中国铝生产商，重申买入中国宏桥（1378 HK）和创新实业（2788 HK）。
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