By Rebecca Ungarino and Nick Devor

Leaders at the largest U.S. bank are trying to get a handle on the fast-growing world of prediction markets, where regulation is still taking shape and insider trading often goes unchecked.

JPMorgan Chase is reviewing company policies to determine whether it should add new guidance around employees' participation in platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, people familiar with the matter said.

Separately, the bank, which has a vast trading business, has no current plans to hire traders of its own to bet on prediction markets, according to the people.

Any new guidance from JPMorgan, which has some 320,000 employees, could set the tone for other companies ironing out their own rules around prediction markets. While bank staffers work in a tightly regulated sector, these platforms represent nascent markets and raise thorny new compliance questions.

Like their rivals, JPMorgan's traders and research analysts monitor prediction markets -- where users can place wagers on anything from interest-rate moves to reality-show winners -- as information sources.

JPMorgan's plans around prediction markets could change if regulators offer greater clarity on how they plan to supervise prediction markets, particularly those where a security is involved, the people familiar with the matter said. Popular prediction-market bets, such as political elections and sports matches, aren't yet sustainable trading businesses, they said.

Prediction markets have created new avenues for bankers to profit from financial information they could learn at work. On Polymarket, for example, traders can try to predict when private companies will go public, how a corporation's earnings will compare to analysts' estimates, and whether a company will complete an acquisition.

JPMorgan's code of conduct already prohibits staff from acting on confidential or material, non-public information. It states that insider trading is illegal and strictly prohibited.

Those existing rules say, "You must never use privileged or confidential information for personal gain or tell, 'tip,' or share information you learned through work with others." JPMorgan could tell employees that its code of conduct also applies to any personal use of prediction markets, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

How guidelines develop across corporate sectors remain to be seen. In January, Barron's asked all 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average if they had employee policies around prediction-market trading. One company declined to comment; the 29 others didn't respond.

Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron's.

Suspicious Polymarket trades related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran have prompted lawmakers to introduce new legislation banning elected officials and federal employees from using prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, issued an advisory on prediction markets last month indicating that insider trading includes "misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information."

A prediction-market trader using information learned on the job would violate Kalshi's rules, the company says. "Whether a person has a legal obligation or not is always going to be the centerpiece of determining insider trading cases," Robert DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement, previously told Barron's.

Polymarket has taken a more laissez-faire approach to inside information. Its social media accounts frequently call out bets that have the hallmarks of insider trading.

Prediction markets are increasingly showing up in conversations about American culture, including Wall Street palace intrigue. There is, for instance, a market on who will eventually replace longtime JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon.

Write to Rebecca Ungarino at rebecca.ungarino@barrons.com and Nick Devor at nicholas.devor@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 16, 2026 11:49 ET (15:49 GMT)

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