【券商聚焦】中信建投：三重边际变化向好，2026证券板块业绩超预期值得期待

金吾财讯

Mar 16

金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，三重边际变化向好，2026证券板块业绩超预期值得期待：1、上半年交投活跃度同比大增趋势确立，全年增长或超预期。截至2026年2月底，沪深A股日均股票成交额达27425亿元，同比增速80%。即便保守假设3~6月日均成交额回落至2.0万亿元，上半年整体日均成交额仍可达2.2万亿元，同比增速60%；若下半年日均成交额维持2.0万亿元，全年日均成交额将达1.7万亿元，同比增长22%。随着A股交投活跃度逐步企稳，券商经营业绩的弹性超预期概率显著提升。2、年初新开户数据亮眼，散户增量资金蓄势待发。据上交所数据，2026年1月A股新增开户数约492万户，创近一年新高，仅次于2024年10月的685万户。短期来看，虽然新开户集中放量或为市场情绪阶段性高位信号，但实则中长期则为A股慢牛行情筑牢增量资金基础，持续注入长期动能。3、券商发债融资规模边际大幅扩张，有望驱动杠杆提升、突破行业ROE高点。2025年前三季度上市券商平均ROE已升至7%~8%的相对高位，但杠杆倍数未现明显增长。2025年1—2月50家样本券商发债总额1172亿元，2026年同期增至3757亿元，同比大增221%。杠杆加速扩张有望推动行业ROE再创新高，进而抬升板块整体估值中枢。

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