金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，2月社融、企业贷款表现相对平稳，而居民部门仍偏弱。1、社融总量受制于政府债错位：社融存量增速持平在8.2%。春节影响下，2月政府债融资同比缩量。不过结合1-2月来看，政府债净融资累计同比-72亿元，总体保持与去年相似的前置发行节奏。2、2月企业信贷看似逆季节性多增，但需要考虑去年同期“地方化债”集中偿还存量贷款的低基数影响。结合1月数据，企业融资在节后开工期呈现回暖，但比历史同期不算强。同时，居民信贷在春节淡季叠加主动去杠杆的趋势下，表现依然疲弱。财政支出进度快、与企业结汇共振，支撑充裕的货币流动性。2月M2同比维持在9.0%的相对高位，M1同比继续回升至5.9%，财政支出进度较快加上企业结汇意愿仍强或共同支撑流动性水平。一季度集中到期下，居民存款“搬家”继续。结构上，2026年一季度迎来居民定存集中到期的高峰。1-2月合并数据来看，居民存款少增而非银存款大幅多增，“存款搬家”正在边际加速。而今年到期溢出的资金往何处去，将决定后续市场的结构性流动性支撑，有待继续观察。
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