【券商聚焦】国泰海通:预计2026年油运景气持续将超预期,且灰色市场变化将提供供需意外期权

金吾财讯
Mar 16

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指,运价跟踪:油运运价仍维持高位,关注灰色市场变化。油运:两阶段成就“超级牛市”第一阶段:地缘冲突驱动全球原油贸易重构,俄欧“舍近求远”拉长航距,驱动油运景气跨年度上行已超三年,且产能利用率升至阈值。第二阶段开启:全球原油开启增产,驱动油运需求继续增长。油轮有效供给刚性持续,未来供需继续向好景气上行,且具油价下跌期权。干散:远程铁矿增产开启,景气有望逐步上行2023-24年疫后恢复性增长驱动景气温和上升。2025上半年需求恢复性增长结束,叠加部分钢厂减产,运价中枢同比回落。全球铁矿增产周期开启,特别是西芒杜超大项目投产在即,期待需求超预期增长。未来数年供给低增,预计景气有望逐步复苏。集运:关税缓和回归新常态,关注中美贸易新格局过去五年两轮高景气,盈利底盘上升。2025上半年中美关税摩擦致贸易与运价短期大幅波动,Q3贸易回归常态化并干线旺季不旺。未来数年干线将再迎船舶大型化与供给压力,301制裁暂停符合预期,关注中美贸易新格局。建议继续关注集运市场结构性增长与机会。油运运价自2025年9月飙升并维持高位,油轮2025年Q4与全年盈利将创十年新高。预计2026年油运景气持续将超预期,且灰色市场变化将提供供需意外期权。

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