黄金股受压 山东黄金(01787)跌5.89% 摩通指短期内黄金仍可能面临进一步下行压力

金吾财讯
12 hours ago

金吾财讯 | 黄金股受压,截至发稿,山东黄金(01787)跌5.89%,赤峰黄金(06693)跌5.46%,紫金黄金国际(02259)跌5.10%,中国黄金国际(02099)跌5.00%,灵宝黄金(03330)跌4.89%,紫金矿业(02899)跌4.39%。消息面上,伊朗冲突爆发两周以来,黄金价格不涨反跌,较开战前累计下跌约6%。摩根大通对此表示,黄金在市场压力骤升初期被"一并抛售",是有据可查的历史规律,而非避险功能失效的信号;历史数据表明,这一初期回调往往构成战术性买入机会,金价通常在随后数个交易日内迅速反弹并收复失地。该机构续指,本轮黄金抛售由多重因素叠加驱动:能源价格飙升推高通胀预期,促使市场大幅压低对美联储降息的预期,叠加美元急速反弹,形成近期的直接利空背景。然而,该行认为最主要的推手是股市波动加剧引发的广泛去风险化——当VIX指数高企并持续攀升时,投资者在保证金追缴、组合再平衡和VaR冲击的叠加压力下被迫全面筹措流动性,黄金持仓首当其冲遭到抛售,全球黄金ETF持仓上周随之出现明显流出。短期内,摩根大通警告黄金仍可能面临进一步下行压力,尤其是若股市更剧烈地定价全球经济前景恶化,将触发新一轮去风险浪潮,利率市场继续消化美联储降息预期也可能带来额外拖累。

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