【券商聚焦】中金公司:化工已开启新一轮上行周期 供给端的刚性约束是行业ROE显著抬升的关键

金吾财讯
11 hours ago

金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指,国家政策逐渐由能耗双控转为强调碳排放总量和强度双控,石化化工是重点行业之一。总量上,2024年中国石化化工行业碳排放量约16亿吨,在全国碳排放总量占比约13%。具体看,子行业碳排放分化,炼油、甲醇、氮肥、电石、乙烯等占比较大。化工已开启新一轮上行周期,供给端的刚性约束,是行业ROE显著抬升并维持长周期景气的关键。截至3月6日,基础化工(中信)P/B为2.94x,处于2012年以来的66%分位数。我们认为此轮行情更多源自于产能扩产进入尾声、供给侧“反内卷”政策落地等带来的估值修复,而基本面角度企业盈利水平仍处于偏底部位置,此后行业ROE的提升是进一步支撑股价上行的关键。碳排放双控对化工行业新增产能限制有效性有望提升。化工行业供给端曾依托行政管控、环保限产、能耗双控等方式约束新增产能,有一定阶段成效但存在执行弹性较大、约束持续性偏弱等问题。而供给端的收缩力度,直接决定周期上行的持续性与价格弹性。向前看,能耗双控已全面开始转向碳排放双控,我们认为将对化工行业供给侧形成更有力约束,特别是:1)规模经济产能下总碳排强度较高的子行业:煤化工、炼油、工业硅、磷酸二铵、电石等;2)单位碳排放创造产值较低的子行业:煤化工、工业硅、磷酸二铵、电石等;3)N2O/HFCs高排放的子行业:N2O包括硝酸、己二酸、己内酰胺,HFCs包括制冷剂等。

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